Without any hesitation, it can be said that the results of the 17th Loksabha election have astonished all the sections of political analysts and critiques. The opposition parties, the organizations, analysts, and intellectuals standing against BJP has not yet recovered from the shock. The attempts of different analysis regarding the reasons behind this huge victory of the BJP and the massive defeat of the opposition do not seem to converge towards a concrete conclusion. In this article, we will put some major points regarding this result, its implications and some possible future consequences. Before going into the discussion on future possibilities, let us first talk about Modi’s massive victory.
First, it should be noted that this victory of BJP should be seen in the context of its earlier victories and not in isolation of it. In this regard, it is relevant to recall that in the Loksabha election of 1984, the BJP was elected in only two seats. A year later, Rajiv Gandhi, for the first time, took a loan from the World Bank on hard conditions, and thus, started the process of “opening up” of India’s economy. Then, after 1991, under the Structural Adjustment Program (SAP), the era of Liberalization Privatization and Globalization (LPG) was duly started. As the imperialist finance capital tightened its grip over India’s economy, loot, exploitation, and repression on every section, class, and community of the people increased. On the other hand, privileges got reduced, intensifying the destitution and deprivation of the people. With all these, there was an increase in the people’s anger, generating various kinds of movements and struggles of the oppressed and the exploited sections and classes, and along with it, to suppress these movements and struggles, the reliance of the Indian state on police repression increased. To continue and intensify this cruel oppression and repression, to gather support for a reactionary people’s opinion, series of campaigns were started in order to create a wave of Hindutvawadi fanaticism and jingoistic nationalism in this Hindu majority country. Here, it is relevant to remind that the number of religious-mythological serials on television at that time was 12. Along with it, initiatives like rathyatra, shilapujan, etc. was started and finally, the Babri Masjid was demolished. Since then, riding on the wave of Hindutva, BJP started acquiring more and more seats in Loksabha; thus, increased the hinduization of the Indian state and militarization of Hindutva. As a result, the journey that BJP started in 1984 with two seats started gradually increasing. They secured 86 seats in 1989, 119 in 1991 Loksabha election, 161 in 1996 and 182 in both the elections of 1998 and 1999. Then, later with a little bit of decrease in two Loksabha elections, they secured 281 seats in 2014 and 303 this time in 2019. So, without only looking at the proficiency of the BJP and failure of the opposition as the reason behind this journey of BJP from merely 2 seats in 1984 to the recent massive victory with 303 seats in 2019, we should look at it as a long process of imposing a fascist regime on the people riding on the wave of Hindutva and jingoistic nationalism as a strategy to deal with the severe crisis faced by the imperialist chieftains and their ruling class agents since 1990s.
Today it is much clearer that the crisis of the finance capital has more deepened and intensified worldwide. In such a situation, to increase the loot and exploitation, to make it more extensive, and along with it to make it more stable and hurdleless, they are feeling a need of a strong state in all the countries especially in their colonies, semi-colonies, and neo-colonies. Therefore, in most of the countries, according to a well-thought plan, fascist regimes are being put forth. And according to the specificity of the country, ideologies of a particular religion, race, ethnicity and community and jingoistic nationalism is being used. BJP’s massive victory in this 2019 Loksabha election should be seen as a result of a well-planned effort of reconstructing this Hindu-fascist Indian state in a stronger form by the imperialist finance capital and their agent, the Indian ruling class.
This reality is much more realized when we observe that how the national and international corporates have spent money extravagantly to built a “Modi wave” using an assortment of mediums from print media, visual media to social media. To create this frenzy and a fanatic wave of Hindutva and jingoistic nationalism, the whole state along with all its machinery and the national and international corporations have applied all their strength. As one of the main prop of imperialism, the feudal forces, especially the upper caste savarna feudals using this Hindutva wave had captured almost each and every election booth with all their strength. Along with them, the whole bureaucracy which is based on a savarna mindset, crores of companies of central forces and RSS with the entire Hindutva brigade were deployed with the fullest capacity and strength. With extensive use of the money power, muscle power and media power, with the help of all kinds of forgery and technical tricks (in view of the accusation of EVM tampering), the BJP is throned with this large number of seats. The indications of the important role of savarna feudal forces, especially of the goons-gangsters and strongmen among them, behind this victory of the Hindutva fascists can also be found in the details of the election results. We can clearly see that the number of criminal BJP MPs among the 303 elected MPs in the parliament is 116, i.e. almost 39% of their elected MPs are from a criminal background. Whereas in 2014, the number of MPs with a criminal background was 98 among the total of 282 MPs, that is 35%. So, this increase of BJP MPs with criminal background from 35% to 39% is an indication of the increasing role of the savarna feudal forces involved in booth management in rural areas.
The conclusion is clear. The victory of BJP is the victory of the well-planned scheme of the international finance capital to strengthen Hindutva fascism in our country in order to come out of its crisis. This is a victory of the plan of the most reactionary section of the domestic agents of the finance capital – the Indian big bourgeoisie and the big landlords, especially the upper caste big landlords, to come into power and intensify the fascification and hinduization of the Indian state.
Here, it is important to emphasize an aspect. It is that to execute the plan of the finance capital and its agent classes, their well-organized conveyer of the Bhraminical-Hindutva, the organization RSS and their dozens of constituent and supporting organizations played a very important role. Now, let us have a look at the apprehensions and possibilities after this victory of the Hindutva-Fascist forces.
The first issue that arises as a result of piling of the worldwide total crisis of the finance capital on India is the intensely decaying state of the Indian economy. To understand the current dampening state of the Indian economy we can have a look into some recent facts. For example, the growth rate of the GDP has been continuously decreasing, in the last quarter of March, it came down to 5.8%, whereas, in 2015-16 the growth rate used to be 8.16%. In 2018-19, the industrial growth rate has come down to 3.6% which is the lowest in last three years. These also have been news of the sloth in the manufacturing growth rate. In this sector, the Gross Value Added (GVA) which in the first quarter of the last year grew in the rate of 12.1%, in the fourth quarter this growth rate got decreased to 3.1%. Similarly, the growth rate of the agricultural sector is falling. While in April-June the growth rate of this sector was 4.58%, in the January-March quarter of 2019 the growth rate went into negative at -0.13%. There also has been a continuous decrease in demand in recent years. In coming days there will be more decrease in all the parameters which will further ruin the economy. As a result, the trend that we are seeing since before will further increase. To clearly state the trends – 1) Unemployment will massively increase, 2) Crisis in the agricultural sector will increase, 3) The industrial crisis will intensify, 4) Government’s spending on education and health will further decrease, thus, increasing the cost, 5) The situation of the environment will further deteriorate. So, in total, because of the piling of the crisis of the finance capital on India, the destruction of all the section and classes will increase. As a consequence, the indications show, there will be an increase in the uprisings and movements of labors, peasants, student-youths, and also a fairly large section of the middle class will revolt.
In this period of the massive crisis of the finance capital, big capital will engulf small and medium capital, and big businesses especially MNCs will engulf small and medium business. There will be continuous centralization of capital, businesses, resources, and properties, this will ruin the small and medium capitalists and traders. Thus, even they will be forced to come down to the streets and protest in various forms. Their movement against GST is an indication.
Defender of the foreign capital, national-international corporates, and savarna feudal forces, this Hindutva-Fascist regime will further intensify the Hindu fanaticism and jingoistic nationalism. This will increase the attacks on Dalits and minorities. Just after the declaration of election results, we started receiving news from MP, UP, Rajasthan, etc. regarding the increasing cruel attacks on Dalits and Muslims in the name of cow protection and cow meat. These attacks inevitably will give rise to combative Dalit and minority movements. Similarly, the intensifying fascist attacks on Dalits and oppressed nationalities will push them more to take the path of struggle and unify with other struggling forces.
Because this Hindutva-fascist force will become more and more cruel and autocratic, they will crack down with cruel repressive measures on all the forces fighting for democracy. Thus, all the democratic and liberal forces will be forced to unite with the struggles against them.
Because this Hindutva-fascism will merely become a regime of only the finance capital and the most reactionary small section of its Indian agents – the Indian comprador big bourgeoisie and big feudal lords especially, the savarna lords, a section of the traditional capitalist-feudal lords ruling class will also be deprived of the power to exploit. Thus, this situation will even push them on the path of struggle.
Therefore, where on one hand this victory of the fascist forces has brought huge apprehension of intensifying loot, exploitation, and cruel repression, on the other hand, it has also brought real possibilities of workers, peasants, student-youth, middle-class, small-medium capitalists and traders, dalits, women, minorities, oppressed nationalities, all patriotic, progressive, democratic and pro-people forces, and even a section of the traditional ruling class to come down for struggle in various forms against the ruling dispensation and the state. This situation also provides a good opportunity for the radical and the anti-fascist forces. In such situation, the true revolutionary forces of this country can only build up the required organizations and network to bring all these revolts, movements, struggles into the revolutionary stream and can massively intensify and expand the revolutionary movements. This is what on which the future of India depends.